Mar 8, 2024

Faisal Islam: The Budget was more radical than it looked

Will workers celebrate paying less tax than they thought they were going to six months ago? Or decry the fact they are paying more than they were told five years ago? This "Fiscal drag" will mean over three million more higher-rate taxpayers, and nearly four million more low earners paying tax. On current trends, a recipient of the full basic state pension alone is also on course to have to pay tax, and perhaps fill out a tax return in 2026/27. According to the OBR's calculations this week's 2% NI cut and last November's 2% cut in the Autumn Statement do not offset the extra income tax being paid as a result of the tax thresholds being frozen. The Conservative strategy on tax has completely turned on its head. Not far from the old Honda factory in Swindon, David Cameron launched his 2015 election manifesto with a commitment to raise income tax thresholds above inflation to take people out of the income tax system, and to prevent many upper-middle earners paying higher-rate tax.

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