May 7, 2020
City Bulletin: Bank of England says economy could contract 30% this quarter
The Bank of England has given its view on the hit to the UK economy from the pandemic. The Bank warned the outlook for the economy is "Unusually uncertain", but in a "Plausible scenario" said UK GDP could be around 30 per cent lower in the second quarter than it was at the end of last year. The good news is the Bank thinks we could be on track for a relatively quick recovery in the third quarter as social distancing measures are gradually lifted, meaning the economy would shrink by 14 per cent this year. Even though around 15 per cent of its estate was closed at the end of April, occupancy levels in open hotels were only around 20 to 25 per cent, IHG said. The coronavirus wrought destruction elsewhere in its portfolio, forcing the pioneering buyout firm to write down its private equity portfolio by 12 per cent in the first quarter.
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